The Value of N I2 in the Midlands North Area

advantage of 1 1% for N12 over NCo376 and NCo293 in the idl lands, which translates into a benefit of R1 7,4 million per The main varieties used in the Midlands North area between annum for the KwaZulu-Natal This estimate was 1983184 and 1996197, were evaluated empirically and their presumably based on the assumption that no factor, other than benefit:cost (B:C) ratios estimated. The value of N12 was variety, is responsible for productivity and that the costs of estimated as R9 million, which indicates an annual contricrop production and of varieties themselves can be ignored. bution of R0,69 million to the area's productivity, with a B:C ratio of 8,60. This study has highlighted the need for the rapid adoption of varieties, if they are to make a positive economic contribution to productivity, for the assessment in economic terms of their value to growers and, in view of the high cost of breeding, of their B:C ratios. Introduction The variety N12, resulting from a cross made in 1962 between NCo376 and Co331, was released in 1979. It was recommended for '. . .most rainfed situations although it does not appear to be very promising for the recent sands. It appears to be particularly suited to two-season cropping in the Midlands and ... It seems to be considerably less susceptible to mosaic than NCo376 ...' The release notice also indicated that in the Natal Midlands N12 outyielded NCo376 by 12% (Anon, 1979). Fifteen years later an article in the SA Sugar Journal (Anon, 1992) reported that trials indicated a sucrose This prompts an attempt to evaluate N12 in monetary terms in the Noodsberg and Union Co-op mill areas, taking costs and the other contributors to productivity into account, and to express its value in benefit:cost terms. The method of evaluation is essentially the same as was used to evaluate NCo310 on an industry-wide basis (Donovan, 1996) but suitably adapted to apply only to the Midlands North area. Variety usage in Midlands North Variety usage is expressed in terms of the percentage contribution of each of the main varieties to total cane production in the two mill areas. Figure 1 shows the pre-N12 variety position in Midlands North between 1966-67, when the two mills started milling, and 1983-84, which was the last year before N12 contributed at least 1% of the cane produced. 1966-67 1968-69 1970-71 1972-73 1974-75 1976-77 1978-79 1980-81 1982-83